Plastic futures forecast to analyze the short-term or concussion of plastic futures
Recently, the plastic 1709 contract was on July 20, after the "plastic-limited order" news, the heng-pan concussion 3 days, and again on July 26, the height of the decline, now out of the "three company Yin" trend. In combination with the situation of approaching delivery, short - line plastic or concussion is the main, the trend will be weak.
The "plastic-restricted order" effect declined
In the early stage, the plastic 1709 contract rose sharply on July 20, breaking through two previous highs of 9430 yuan/ton and 9620 yuan per ton. But after a careful study reveals that the execution of "plastic limit order" date at the end of the year, so the substantial impact of the contract should be 1805, about 1801 are limited, the influence of the 1709 rally, mostly because of news hype knock-on effects in the majority.
And in-depth research to provisions of the "plastic limit order" will find that the country and is not a total ban on all imports of waste plastics, but for has great pollution to the environment of the source of life "foreign garbage" completely banned, for the plastics industry, conform to the requirements of the permit holder, can continue to imports of waste plastics source production. As for the import and processing of waste plastics from the source of life, our country began to ban the work of small factories in the years before, and now the industry has been largely restricted and standardized. So far this year, the import of real waste plastic from April and may is also a downward trend. For news, for the interpretation of the policy have, but the enthusiasm of people chase after go up makes a sound neglected and annihilation, and sustained high after the failure and the news to be important for everyone.
After a big rally, the bulls' emotions have been cathartic, and the effect of the "plastic restrictions" has been expected.
Spot prices failed to quickly follow
Another reason for the surge in plastic 1709 is that spot prices have not been quick to follow. The current consumption of plastic is in a relatively low season, the overall demand is not very high, although the current plastic overall social inventory is not high, but this year of oil prices caused the plastic industry cost is relatively high. Combined with futures rallied amid import prices has been in a stable state, futures soared to more than 9700 yuan/ton, part of the spot price still maintained in 9300-9500 yuan/ton, import prices even under the August still is controlled in 9200 yuan/ton, theoretically can hedge plate: the presence of a batch, lucrative.
In the futures price for three consecutive days failed to hit a record high after the near delivery 1709 contracts are the basis of regression, short at this time a large number of approach, long profits, prices plummet is understandable. The actual delivery of the warehouse receipt is not much, but the enthusiasm for the entry of the hedge trader futures is greatly increased, which perfectly explains the recent situation.
Short-term or concussion
Now, after futures rose, with the demand of the callback, the spot transaction is still not very desirable, and imports and spot prices failed to follow up the futures prices artificially high, near delivery, have a need to further correction. At the end of the maintenance season of the refinery, the restart of some domestic installations will alleviate the current situation of low social inventory. In the short term, prices will tend to return to the state of the basic surface.
Inventory is not high, but the society faces the start of the season, the overall demand is increasing expectations, the strength of the callback will be discounted, combining the situation of the delivery of the warehouse receipt registered less, the parties still exist certain differences for the price of the afternoon, long-short are not points to determine the future expectations, and near the delivery, the overall trading was relatively cautious.
In conclusion, the current plastic futures price on the high side, spot supply, prices have expectations of further correction, but the overall social inventory is not high, the downstream demand season is coming, and limiting the downward price space. On the short term, the overall plastic 1709 contract is still weak, but it is advantageous to support the downside.